James Rubin on China and Russia
Tonight 
I was lucky enough to go to a question and answer session with James Rubin, Democrat and foreign policy expert, ably hosted by the chief economist of HSBC Stephen King. The questions were very diverse, and of a high quality as one would expect from an audience of fund managers; they compared well with those at the Oxford Union, which tend to show the audience’s comparative (and understandable) unfamiliarity with the topics, and with those at the Reform Club, which tend to lack focus on the questioning aspect and sometimes sound awfully like statements.
One subject of discussion that I found particularly fascinating was Russia. Rubin compared Russia with China, styling the former as a country with a need to be a global power, in contrast to the latter which he described as a regional political power, with geopolitical concern only for Taiwan and recognition in Asia, which restricted it’s global policy decision making solely to economic concerns. He cited the Russians renewed muscle flexing around the former Soviet Union, for example in Eastern Europe and most recently Georgia. Continuing this theme of a global outlook, Rubin predicted that the Kremlin would use Russia’s vast quantities of oil and gas for political purposes.
Of course, in the context of the wider debate, we heard his thoughts on the difference in approach that the two presidential candidates would take: McCain, he said, would be more willing to use force, presumably not directly against Russia, and not worry about bringing the United States’ allies in Europe and elsewhere along with him. Obama, on the other hand, was predicted to be more focused on dialogue, considering force as a last resort. It was also interesting to hear that he thought Joe Biden, who he used to work for would be well suited to a role drumming up support for US actions among its allies.
I don’t want to add too many of my own thought: I broadly agree with Rubin and I would say that it is a brave man who bets against Putin, who has sucessfully held onto power even after his move from being President to Prime Minister. Russia never really went away and they are certainly here now with memories of the humiliation they suffered in the 1990’s on their minds.
